Weekend + Monday thoughts:
– Iowa State is guaranteed a winning Big 12 record, and the neutral site win over Miami is looking better. There is no conceivable way for them to miss the in NCAA tournament. They are now a lock and they move up to a six.
-Kansas and Villanova are going to be on the one line. Both can afford two more losses and still be completely safe on the one line. If either loses three, then it will get close. Even then, I suspect both would still land on the one line. In other words, Kansas and Villanova are going to be one seeds this year.
-Kansas has overtaken Villanova for the overall one seed. That’s not because of Villanova failing in any way. It’s because Kansas has added wins over West Virginia and at Baylor in the last week, while their previous wins away from home over Duke and Kentucky keep looking better. Kansas has a whopping FIVE wins over teams on the first four lines, with three of them away from home. Villanova’s schedule hasn’t even afforded them the chance to win games like that, let alone actually doing it. Despite one more loss, Kansas has proven there is a distinction between them and other protected seeds. And that won’t go unnoticed by the committee.
-Baylor sticks as my final one over UNC. I don’t feel great about leaving Baylor on the one line after two losses this week, but they simply have done more than UNC this season. If Kansas really is the overall one seed, then Baylor shouldn’t be punished too heavily for being swept by them. Remember, Baylor still has wins over Louisville and Oregon in the non-conference. Those could prove vital, as all of those teams have their eyes set on the one line.
-I wouldn’t go as far as locking any teams up just because they are in the top eight lines, but I am confident every team seeded eighth or better will be dancing. And every team on the nine line has a better than 50% chance of joining them. However, the bubble is getting very weak from the ten line on down. If your team is seeded tenth or worse, there are stronger reasons not to include them than the include them. But the field needs 68 teams and I don’t expect many (if any) bid thieves this year. 4-10 in conference and 14-13 overall is good enough, with this weak bubble, to be right on the cut line.
-Virginia has now lost four straight. They stayed as my last four until the home loss to Miami. Now they are down to a five. While they aren’t playing well, remember it’s the whole season. The Cavs still have a sweep of Louisville and four additional top 50 wins.
-Meanwhile, Miami’s road win at UVA makes them a likely tournament team. Just avoiding a collapse is all they need.
MIDWEST
1 KANSAS
16 NORTH DAKOTA / NC CENTRAL
8 NORTHWESTERN
9 ARKANSAS
5 PURDUE
12 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
4 BUTLER
13 AKRON
6 WISCONSIN
11 WICHITA STATE
3 FLORIDA STATE
14 VALPO
7 MINNESOTA
10 KANSAS STATE
2 ARIZONA
15 CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
SOUTH
1 BAYLOR
16 NEW ORLEANS / MOUNT ST. MARY’S
8 SOUTH CAROLINA
9 DAYTON
5 VIRGINIA
12 UT ARLINGTON
4 UCLA
13 VERMONT
6 IOWA STATE
11 GEORGIA TECH / MARQUETTE
3 FLORIDA
14 BELMONT
7 XAVIER
10 MICHIGAN
2 LOUISVILLE
15 FGCU
EAST
1 VILLANOVA
16 TEXAS SOUTHERN
8 MIAMI
9 VCU
5 CINCINNATI
12 UNC WILMINGTON
4 WEST VIRGINIA
13 PRINCETON
6 MARYLAND
11 CAL / CLEMSON
3 KENTUCKY
14 BUCKNELL
7 SMU
10 MICHIGAN STATE
2 NORTH CAROLINA
15 FURMAN
WEST
1 GONZAGA
16 UC IRVINE
8 USC
9 VIRGINIA TECH
5 NOTRE DAME
12 NEVADA
4 CREIGHTON
13 MONMOUTH
6 OKLAHOMA STATE
11 SETON HALL
3 DUKE
14 UNC ASHEVILLE
7 SAINT MARY’S
10 TCU
2 OREGON
15 NORTH DAKOTA STATE
NEXT FOUR OUT: GEORGETOWN, TENNESSEE, VANDERBILT, PITTSBURGH
Graham Doeren Bracketology 