This is my final bracket. I think Xavier just lost their bid, due to Richmond pulling off an A-10 Tournament Title upset.
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Davidson is 25-5, and 5-4 vs quadrants 1&2. The Wildcats have likely done enough to get in, regardless of whether they win the A-10 Tournament.
It’s looking good for the Mustangs. At 6-5 vs quadrants 1&2, they’re on the right side of the bubble. Beating Memphis would put them in a very comfortable position, but a win still might not be necessary.
The Indiana Hoosiers are likely dancing after consecutive wins over Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament.
That 17-14 record is rough, but they’re still 36 in KPI and 44 in Strength of Record. 8-13 vs Q1/2 is not very good, though. This one will be very close. I’m leaning towards in, but close.
Wyoming is still 39th in KPI with an 11-6 record vs Q1/2. Will that be enough? I lean yes, but another very close call for a team with awful efficiency metrics. They could be in trouble if the committee seeks to choose the best teams over the most deserving.
18-13 isn’t a strong record and Xavier has been brutal down the stretch, but they are 5-8 vs quadrant 1 with a neutral court win against Virginia Tech (if that becomes a factor). Right now, they’re looking like they might head to Dayton.
The Hokies are still only 51st in Strength of Record and 56th in KPI. Those are not really at-large level metrics. But their efficiency metrics are extremely good and their 8-10 record vs. quadrants 1/2 is decent enough. The question here is whether the committee is seeking to place the best teams in the field. If so, it’ll be a good Selection Sunday. If the committee is going for most deserving, they better win the ACC title. Right now, my feeling is a close loss to Duke may get it done, depending on bid thieves elsewhere.
For Texas A&M, 8-9 vs quadrants 1/2 is good enough to be right on the cutline. The Aggies are 38th in Strength of Record but 3-9 vs quadrant 1 is dangerous. I’m leaning towards the Arkansas game being the decider. Win and in. Lose and out.
37th in Strength of Record makes ND a viable at-large candidate. But they lost twice to Virginia Tech and are just 4-9 vs. quadrants 1/2. I don’t think ND will make the field with their lack of quality wins.
Despite the loss to Texas Tech, the Sooners are still in this thing. Ultimately, I think an 18-15 record won’t be quite enough. But this resume is viable due to high end wins.
VCU is in the thick of this. With an awesome 29th ranking in KPI, the Rams look like an at-large team, especially with three quality road wins over Davidson, Dayton, and Vanderbilt. But my gut is leaning towards VCU being out right now. They may have just one win against the field (and possibly even zero), and they’re just 3-5 vs. quadrant 2. Their resume metrics look better than their team sheet or the team themselves at this point. The Ace Baldwin injury earlier this year may help their case for inclusion.
6 quadrant 1 wins have Rutgers right in the discussion. But I don’t think it will be enough. At 62nd in KPI and 53rd in Strength of Record (SOR), there’s not a strong enough resume to overcome brutal NET and efficiency numbers.
The BYU Cougars still have a viable at-large case. But at 55 and 60 in KPI and SOR, they simply didn’t do enough to get excited about anything in particular. There’s enough that it wont surprise me if they get a bid, but I don’t think they’ll get in.
With four awful losses, there is still work to be done. If they win today over Richmond, they’ve got a shot. But despite a terrific win over Kansas, those bad losses may be too much to overcome.
With a brutal non-conference schedule and only one quadrant 1 win, I don’t think Wake will get in. But they’ve got a shot.
There are still reasons to include North Texas in the field. But I just don’t think they have a marquee win that will get them included in the field.
Potential one seeds Arizona, Kansas, Auburn, and Kentucky all play today, while Baylor watches, hoping for them to trip up.
There are now 7 teams outside the bracket with realistic at-large hopes. Some are waiting for Selection Sunday. Others must win today to keep realistic tournament hopes alive.
Wake Forest moved out of the bracket and Rutgers moved in, following a bad loss by the Demon Deacons to Boston College.
This bracket took about 10 hours to build. The first 7 lines won’t change much before Selection Sunday. Lines 8-16 will see significant movement in the days ahead. Enjoy!
Before tonight’s games, here’s a new bracket…
Baylor moves to 2nd overall after winning at Texas.
San Diego State is up to the nine line and Wyoming is down to 11 after the Aztecs defeated Wyoming in Laramie.
Saturday’s games had a big impact on the bracket. And yet, seeds are starting to get close to settled. Here is the new bracket. And yes, I know SMU and Memphis are in the same conference. But they’re allowed to play in the First Four, as part of bracketing principles.