The Sunday Skinny (why each team is where they are)

“Why is Florida seeded on the six line?” “Why is Oklahoma State a four?” Well, look below.

ONE SEEDS

Gonzaga: Undefeated with great wins; 1 seed lock

Michigan: Win collection is just slightly better than Baylor’s for 2nd overall

Baylor: Just one loss vs. 6 elite wins

Ohio St: Clear drop off from the three above, but the win at Illinois is a great tiebreaker

TWO SEEDS

Illinois: Nearly an identical resume to Ohio State, but the Illni lost at home in the head to head

Alabama: 7 Quad 1 wins match up with the 5th/6th ranked Strength of Record (SOR) and KPI

Villanova: Lacking marquee wins, but NET, SOR, and the efficiency metrics all align in this range

West Virginia: Efficiency metrics aren’t fantastic, but they have 3 truly elite road wins

THREE SEEDS

Iowa: Just 5-6 vs. Quad 1, but their efficiency profile and Garza are elite

Houston: The East Carolina loss is a killer, but they’ve still won 75% of their Q1/2 games

Kansas: NET, SOR, and Sagarin all agree with this range; 6-8 vs. Q1, but the wins are excellent

Florida St: Feel more like a 4 seed, but this team has been more consistently great than the 4s

FOUR SEEDS

Arkansas: Some very good wins and a great record, but FSU is more efficient (and better?)

Oklahoma St: Toss out the metrics; this team has a sweep of Texas Tech & 5 other great wins

Texas Tech: Swept both Oklahoma & Texas; efficiency metrics love the Red Raiders

Oklahoma: The win in Austin keeps Oklahoma above Texas; metrics don’t love the Sooners

FIVE SEEDS

Texas: The Longhorns are just 4-7 vs. Q1, but four wins stand out (@WV, @KU, KU, OSU)

Virginia: Efficiency metrics love them, but where are the elite wins?

Purdue: A Q3 loss hurts, but the sweep of Ohio St has real power

Creighton: Such an odd profile; Q1/2 record indicates 4 seed while bad losses drag them down

SIX SEEDS

Clemson: Efficiency profile is lacking, but they own wins against Alabama, Florida St, and Purdue

Missouri: For all their troubles, this team is still a perfect 4-0 vs. Quad 1A

Tennessee: They still have wins over Kansas, Arkansas, @Missouri, & Colorado, but just 6-7 vs. Q1/2

Florida: The Gators have a bad loss, but are 8-5 vs. Q1/2 with a huge win at West Virginia

SEVEN SEEDS

Virginia Tech: Metrics don’t like them, but they have no bad losses & wins over ‘Nova, UVA, & Clemson

USC: Some quality wins, but nothing awesome. In range with their efficiency profile & NET rating

Wisconsin: Efficiency metrics love them, but at some point they need to convert more of their chances

Colorado: The Buffs have a sweep of USC and great metrics; but THREE Q3 losses?

The Sunday Skinny (why each team is where they are)

Sunday Morning Bracket

Selection Sunday is now just two weeks away, and Saturday saw some big bracket changes. Notably, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech rocketed up the bracket to four seeds. The Cowboys own 7 wins over locks or at-large contenders. Only one of those wins (at Wichita St) is against a team that’s not in competition for a protected, top four seed. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has completed sweeps over both Oklahoma and Texas.

Xavier (9 seed) beat Creighton to add some room between them and the cut line, and Boise State and Drake are now playing each other for a spot on the 12 line after rough weekends for both squads.

The first four out are (in order): Seton Hall, St Louis, Richmond, Indiana

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 NC A&T / Nicholls

8 Oregon
9 Rutgers

5 Purdue
12 Winthrop

4 Oklahoma
13 Belmont

6 Florida
11 St Bonaventure

3 Iowa
14 Wright St

7 USC
10 LSU

2 West Virginia
15 South Dakota

Region 4

1 Ohio St
16 James Madison

8 N Carolina
9 Xavier

5 Creighton
12 Boise St / Drake

4 Texas Tech
13 Liberty

6 Tennessee
11 Wichita St

3 Kansas
14 Navy

7 Virginia Tech
10 Loyola-Chicago

2 Alabama
15 Siena

Region 2

1 Michigan
16 Prairie View A&M / Bryant

8 BYU
9 Louisville

5 Virginia
12 Western Kentucky

4 Oklahoma St
13 Toledo

6 Clemson
11 Michigan St

3 Houston
14 UMBC

7 Wisconsin
10 UCLA

2 Villanova
15 Grand Canyon

Region 3

1 Baylor
16 Eastern Washington

8 San Diego St
9 Maryland

5 Texas
12 Colorado St / Georgia Tech

4 Arkansas
13 UC Santa Barbara

6 Missouri
11 VCU

3 Florida St
14 UNCG

7 Colorado
10 UConn

2 Illinois
15 Texas St
Sunday Morning Bracket

Friday Bracket

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 Prairie View A&M / Bryant

8 Rutgers
9 Oregon

5 Virginia
12 Belmont

4 Kansas
13 Liberty

6 Clemson
11 St Bonaventure

3 Iowa
14 Navy

7 Florida
10 Wichita St

2 West Virginia
15 UMBC

Region 4

1 Ohio St
16 S Dakota

8 Colorado
9 Louisville

5 USC
12 Michigan St / Xavier

4 Arkansas
13 Winthrop

6 Wisconsin
11 UConn

3 Texas
14 UNCG

7 Virginia Tech
10 Loyola-Chicago

2 Villanova
15 Abilene Christian

Region 2

1 Baylor
16 EWU / Norfolk St

8 San Diego St
9 Maryland

5 Tennessee
12 Western Kentucky

4 Creighton
13 Grand Canyon

6 Oklahoma St
11 Drake

3 Florida St
14 UCSB

7 Texas Tech
10 VCU

2 Illinois
15 Texas St

Region 3

1 Michigan
16 Northeastern

8 LSU
9 UCLA

5 Purdue
12 Colorado St / GA Tech

4 Oklahoma
13 Toledo

6 Missouri
11 Boise St

3 Houston
14 Wright St

7 BYU
10 N Carolina

2 Alabama
15 Siena
Friday Bracket

Monday Morning Bracket

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 Norfolk St / Bryant

8 North Carolina
9 Loyola-Chicago

5 Missouri
12 Seton Hall / St Bonaventure

4 Kansas
13 Liberty

6 LSU
11 Xavier

3 Houston
14 Wright St

7 BYU
10 Wichita St

2 Iowa
15 Siena

Region 4

1 Ohio St
16 South Dakota

8 Florida
9 Colorado

5 USC
12 Belmont

4 Virginia
13 Grand Canyon

6 Virginia Tech
11 Colorado St

3 West Virginia
14 UNCG

7 Clemson
10 UCLA

2 Alabama
15 Sam Houston St

Region 2

1 Baylor
16 E Wash / Prairie View A&M

8 Maryland
9 Oregon

5 Texas
12 Indiana / UConn

4 Tennessee
13 Toledo

6 Arkansas
11 VCU

3 Florida St
14 UC Santa Barbara

7 Oklahoma St
10 Louisville

2 Illinois
15 Texas St

Region 3

1 Michigan
16 Northeastern

8 San Diego St
9 Rutgers

5 Creighton
12 W Kentucky

4 Texas Tech
13 Winthrop

6 Purdue
11 Drake

3 Oklahoma
14 Navy

7 Wisconsin
10 Boise St

2 Villanova
15 UMBC
Monday Morning Bracket

Sunday morning bracket

Saturday’s results had big effects throughout the bracket. The first team out is Minnesota. It is really hard to pass on a team that owns wins over Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue, but getting destroyed at home by Illinois was a real problem for a team that has not yet won a road game.

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 Norfolk St / Bryant

8 Loyola-Chicago
9 North Carolina

5 Missouri
12 Seton Hall / St Bonaventure

4 Kansas
13 Liberty

6 LSU
11 Xavier

3 Houston
14 Wright St

7 BYU
10 Wichita St

2 Iowa
15 Siena

Region 4

1 Ohio St
16 South Dakota

8 Florida
9 Colorado

5 USC
12 Belmont

4 Virginia
13 Grand Canyon

6 Virginia Tech
11 Colorado St

3 West Virginia
14 UNCG

7 Clemson
10 Maryland

2 Alabama
15 Sam Houston St

Region 2

1 Baylor
16 E Wash / Prairie View A&M

8 Rutgers
9 Louisville

5 Texas Tech
12 Indiana / UConn

4 Tennessee
13 Toledo

6 Arkansas
11 VCU

3 Florida St
14 UC Santa Barbara

7 Oklahoma St
10 UCLA

2 Illinois
15 Texas St

Region 3

1 Michigan
16 Northeastern

8 San Diego St
9 Oregon

5 Creighton
12 W Kentucky

4 Texas
13 Winthrop

6 Purdue
11 Drake

3 Oklahoma
14 Navy

7 Wisconsin
10 Boise St

2 Villanova
15 UMBC
Sunday morning bracket

February 15, 2021 Bracket

The big picture is starting to take shape. These final four weeks will be fascinating. Some teams who have played more games won’t have as much of an opportunity to move their bracket position, as each game has less of an impact on their overall resume. But some teams like Xavier and Saint Louis can still see a lot of movement since each game they play from here on out constitutes a larger portion of their overall resume.

REGION 1

1 Gonzaga

16 Prairie View A&M / Bryant

8 Xavier

9 Loyola-Chicago

5 Florida St

12 Belmont

4 Texas Tech

13 Liberty

6 Virginia Tech

11 St Bonaventure

3 Iowa

14 Navy

7 LSU

10 UCLA

2 Virginia

15 Abilene Christian

REGION 4

1 Ohio St

16 Northeastern

8 Florida

9 VCU

5 Kansas

12 Boise St / UConn

4 Tennessee

13 Winthrop

6 Purdue

11 Drake

3 West Virginia

14 UNCG

7 Rutgers

10 Oregon

2 Alabama

15 Texas St

REGION 2

1 Baylor

16 EWU / Morgan St

8 BYU

9 Colorado

5 Creighton

12 Colorado St / SLU

4 USC

13 Toledo

6 Arkansas

11 Indiana

3 Villanova

14 UCSB

7 Clemson

10 Seton Hall

2 Illinois

15 UMBC

REGION 3

1 Michigan

16 S Dakota

8 Oklahoma St

9 San Diego St

5 Missouri

12 W Kentucky

4 Texas

13 Grand Canyon

6 Wisconsin

11 North Carolina

3 Oklahoma

14 Wright St

7 Louisville

10 Minnesota

2 Houston

15 Siena

February 15, 2021 Bracket

12/21 Bracket

-Wow! UNC losing at home to Wofford was a shocker. It becomes Wofford’s only win against a team in the top 235 of the RPI. In fact, Furman stays at the Southern auto bid in this bracket, even though this win almost forced Wofford to take their spot. This loss was a true home game for UNC, so this will really hurt on Selection Sunday. Despite that, UNC only moves down to a three thanks to four Group 1 victories.

-Purdue and Kansas sit at two seeds despite some struggles. Purdue owns four Group One wins and Kansas owns three. Perhaps more importantly, they’re probably just plain better than Miami, the other team considered for a two (who has nothing even remotely noteworthy besides a win at Minnesota and a neutral court win against La Salle).

-60% of the Big XII is ranked. Unfortunately for them, the league has played too many games against teams like Southern, Omaha, and Maryland Eastern Shore for the RPI to accurately reflect how good the league is. Expect the Big XII to land around seven bids, but that might not be doing the league justice, as there is no reason outside of schedule strength that teams like Kansas State and Baylor find themselves with a triple-digit RPI.  In reality, these are both probably top 40 teams.

-Xavier’s record and ranking makes you think they should be a two or three seed. But they find themselves down at four thanks to some close calls with mediocre competition and zero wins against the RPI top 60.

SOUTH

1 Duke
16 Liberty / Navy

8 Baylor
9 Temple

5 Missouri
12 Towson

4 Xavier
13 Bradley

6 Seton Hall
11 Texas

3 Kentucky
14 Central Michigan

7 Auburn
10 BYU

2 West VA
15 Iona

WEST

1 Arizona State
16 NC A&T / Jacksonville State

8 Gonzaga
9 Creighton

5 Syracuse
12 MTSU

4 Arkansas
13 N Mex St

6 Texas Tech
11 Rhode Island / Boise St

3 Purdue
14 Lipscomb

7 Cincinnati
10 Minnesota

2 Kansas
15 Louisiana

MIDWEST

1 Michigan State
16 Penn

8 Nevada
9 Florida St

5 Tennessee
12 Boston College / No. Iowa

4 TCU
13 UCSB

6 Arizona
11 Butler

3 Miami
14 Milwaukee

7 Iowa State
10 Louisville

2 Texas A&M
15 Wagner

EAST

1 Villanova
16 Idaho

8 Michigan
9 Alabama

5 Wichita State
12 Stephen F Austin

4 Virginia
13 S Dakota

6 Clemson
11 Saint Bonaventure

3 Oklahoma
14 Albany

7 St John’s
10 Houston

2 Purdue
15 Furman

12/21 Bracket

Sunday Bracket

Some big bracket moves this week:

-Trae Young is the rare freshman who exceeds the hype. After winning at Wichita State, it’s time for OU to be mentioned as a Big XII title contender and for Young to be mentioned as a Wooden POY candidate.  They are up to a three.

-Syracuse got an overtime win to knock rival Georgetown from the unbeaten ranks.  For the one-loss Orange, they still find themselves back at a six seed after failing to win any Tier One games (falling in Miami to Kansas in their only Tier 1 or 2 game).

-Baylor is still down at an eight seed.  Frankly, they are lucky to be in that position. A win over Creighton is about the only thing they have going for them right now.

-Kansas doesn’t look like a two seed, but a one point victory over Nebraska on the road gives them a third Tier 1 win.  If they land both Preston and De Sousa onto the roster, they’ll be a threat to gain a one seed. If they don’t, this could be KU’s worst seed since 2000 (the last time they weren’t a top four seed).

SOUTH

1 Duke
16 Liberty / Navy

8 Baylor
9 Auburn

5 Wichita State
12 MTSU

4 Xavier
13 Lipscomb

6 St John’s
11 Texas / UCF

3 Kentucky
14 Wagner

7 Clemson
10 UNI

2 West VA
15 Iona

WEST

1 Arizona State
16 N Kentucky

8 Boise St
9 Creighton

5 Arizona
12 UCSB

4 TCU
13 SFA

6 Texas Tech
11 Alabama

3 Purdue
14 New Mexico St

7 Iowa State
10 Butler

2 UNC
15 Louisiana

MIDWEST

1 Michigan State
16 NC A&T / Albany

8 Cincinnati
9 Louisville

5 Seton Hall
12 Towson

4 Tennessee
13 Loyola-Chicago

6 Missouri
11 Rhode Island

3 Miami
14 S Dakota

7 Nevada
10 BYU

2 Kansas
15 Murray St

EAST

1 Villanova
16 Furman

8 Gonzaga
9 Minnesota

5 Arkansas
12 St Bonaventure

4 Virginia
13 Portland St

6 Syracuse
11 South Carolina / Ohio State

3 Oklahoma
14 Penn

7 Michigan
10 Florida State

2 Texas A&M
15 Akron

 

Sunday Bracket

December 11 Bracket

SOUTH

1 Duke
16 NC A&T / Navy

8 Arizona
9 Rhode Island

5 Missouri
12 SF Austin

4 TCU
13 UC Santa Barbara

6 St John’s
11 Iowa State / Boston College

3 Kentucky
14 Murray State

7 Arkansas
10 Texas

2 Wichita State
15 FGCU

MIDWEST

1 Michigan State
16 Rider / Liberty

8 Central Florida
9 Alabama

5 Seton Hall
12 Loyola-Chicago

4 Kansas
13 St Bonaventure

6 UNI
11 Florida

3 Virginia
14 Idaho

7 Nevada
10 Butler

2 UNC
15 Louisiana

WEST

1 Arizona St
16 East Tenn State

8 Creighton
9 Clemson

5 Texas Tech
12 Towson

4 Purdue
13 Central Michigan

6 Florida State
11 Middle Tenn

3 Miami
14 S Dakota

7 Notre Dame
10 Oklahoma

2 Texas A&M
15 Penn

EAST

1 Villanova
16 Grand Canyon

8 Western KY
9 Utah

5 Syracuse
12 Washington / Baylor

4 Xavier
13 Milwaukee

6 Gonzaga
11 Virginia Tech

3 Tennessee
14 Wagner

7 Temple
10 Minnesota

2 West VA
15 Albany

 

December 11 Bracket