Final Selection Sunday Bracket

This is it, folks. No more changes. This is my projected field for 2021.

First Six Out, in order: Utah St, St Louis, Ole Miss, Boise St, Colorado St, Memphis. There are other teams that could sneak in, but I don’t think they have a legitimate hope.

West

1 Gonzaga
16 Appalachian St / Texas Southern

8 San Diego St
9 Rutgers

5 Villanova
12 UCSB

4 Florida St
13 North Texas

6 Missouri
11 UCLA / Syracuse

3 Texas
14 Eastern Washington

7 Oklahoma
10 Virginia Tech

2 Iowa
15 Grand Canyon

East

1 Michigan
16 Norfolk St / Mt St Mary's

8 Florida
9 St Bonaventure

5 USC
12 Georgetown

4 West Virginia
13 Liberty

6 Colorado
11 Wichita St / Drake

3 Kansas
14 Abilene Christian

7 BYU
10 Maryland

2 Alabama
15 Oral Roberts

South

1 Baylor
16 Hartford

8 Wisconsin
9 North Carolina

5 Creighton
12 Winthrop

4 Virginia
13 UNCG

6 Texas Tech
11 Louisville

3 Arkansas
14 Morehead St

7 Oregon
10 Loyola-Chicago

2 Ohio St
15 Drexel

Midwest

1 Illinois
16 Iona

8 UConn
9 Georgia Tech

5 Tennessee
12 Oregon St

4 Purdue
13 Colgate

6 LSU
11 Michigan St

3 Oklahoma St
14 Ohio

7 Clemson
10 VCU

2 Houston
15 Cleveland St
Final Selection Sunday Bracket

Selection Sunday Bracket

It’s here! It’s Selection Sunday!

Anyways, here is the bracket. I’d say don’t expect many changes, but with the bid thieves we’ve been seeing so far…

West

1 Gonzaga
16 Appalachian St / Texas Southern

8 San Diego St
9 Rutgers

5 Villanova
12 North Texas

4 Florida St
13 UCSB

6 Missouri
11 UCLA / Syracuse

3 Texas
14 Eastern Washington

7 Oklahoma
10 VCU

2 Iowa
15 Grand Canyon

East

1 Michigan
16 Norfolk St / Mt St Mary's

8 Florida
9 Virginia Tech

5 USC
12 Georgetown

4 West Virginia
13 Liberty

6 Colorado
11 Wichita St / Drake

3 Kansas
14 Abilene Christian

7 BYU
10 Maryland

2 Alabama
15 Oral Roberts

South

1 Baylor
16 Hartford

8 Wisconsin
9 North Carolina

5 Creighton
12 Winthrop

4 Virginia
13 UNCG

6 Texas Tech
11 Louisville

3 Arkansas
14 Morehead St

7 Oregon
10 Loyola-Chicago

2 Ohio St
15 Drexel

Midwest

1 Illinois
16 Iona

8 UConn
9 Georgia Tech

5 Tennessee
12 Oregon St

4 Purdue
13 Colgate

6 LSU
11 Michigan St

3 Oklahoma St
14 Ohio

7 Clemson
10 St Bonaventure

2 Houston
15 Cleveland St
Selection Sunday Bracket

Friday Bracket

This may end up being the last bracket update before Sunday morning. Lines 1-6 are pretty well set and won’t see much movement. One notable exception may be the final four seed between Florida St and Villanova. I’ve been digging into that particular spot quite a bit and will re-examine. Villanova has plenty of reasons to think they should win that battle, but the Colin Gillespie injury has been followed by two mediocre to bad losses. I will likely stick with FSU at 4 for that reason, but I’m not comfortable with it and will be watching how FSU performs against UNC tonight. Most of the movement there will be within the lines themselves. Line 7 will still likely see a bit of movement, as teams like Oregon, LSU, Florida, and Wisconsin continue to play.

Oklahoma should be a true six seed, but they’ve played all the Big XII teams that are on the 3 line at least twice. I’m moving them to a 7 and bumping Oregon up to ensure a national tournament.

But there is still a lot of potential movement from lines 8-12, as one win can still make a great impact on those teams’ overall resumes.

The first four out: Ole Miss, St Louis, Boise St, Memphis

West
1 Gonzaga
16 Prairie View A&M / Mt St Mary's

8 N Carolina
9 Rutgers

5 Villanova
12 Drake / Colorado St

4 Florida St
13 UCSB

6 Oregon
11 Michigan St

3 Kansas
14 Colgate

7 Oklahoma
10 Georgia Tech

2 Ohio St
15 Grand Canyon

East
1 Illinois
16 Norfolk St / App St

8 Florida
9 St Bonaventure

5 Tennessee
12 Syracuse / Utah St

4 West Virginia
13 UNCG

6 Missouri
11 UCLA

3 Texas
14 Morehead St

7 BYU
10 Loyola-Chicago

2 Alabama
15 Drexel
South
1 Baylor
16 Hartford

8 Wisconsin
9 San Diego St

5 USC
12 W Kentucky

4 Virginia
13 Liberty

6 Texas Tech
11 Louisville

3 Arkansas
14 Southern Utah

7 Clemson
10 VCU

2 Iowa
15 Cleveland St

Midwest
1 Michigan
16 Oral Roberts

8 UConn
9 Virginia Tech

5 Creighton
12 Winthrop

4 Purdue
13 Toledo

6 Colorado
11 Wichita St

3 Oklahoma St
14 Abilene Christian

7 LSU
10 Maryland

2 Houston
15 Iona
Friday Bracket

Wednesday Bracket

Scrubbed the bracket. The top 6 seed lines aren’t likely to change a whole lot from here on out.

I have Oklahoma staying at their true 6 seed despite being a violation of bracketing principles. I think the committee will try to respect their true seed line.

West
1 Gonzaga 
16 Prairie View A&M / App St
8 Virginia Tech 9 Rutgers 5 Creighton 12 Drake / Boise St
4 Virginia 13 Toledo
6 Missouri 11 Wichita St 3 Kansas
14 Colgate 7 Colorado 10 Georgia Tech
2 Ohio St 15 Weber St
East 1 Illinois 16 Norfolk St / Mt St Mary's
8 Florida 9 Loyola-Chicago 5 Tennessee 12 Colorado St / Xavier 4 Texas 13 UNCG 6 Clemson 11 VCU
3 Oklahoma St 14 Abilene Christian 7 BYU 10 N Carolina
2 Alabama 15 Siena
South 1 Baylor
16 Hartford 8 Wisconsin 9 UConn
5 Florida St 12 W Kentucky
4 Purdue 13 UCSB 6 Texas Tech 11 Maryland 3 Arkansas 14 Morehead St 7 Oregon 10 Louisville
2 Iowa 15 GCU Midwest
1 Michigan 16 Oral Roberts
8 San Diego St 9 St Bonaventure
5 USC 12 Winthrop 4 Villanova 13 Liberty
6 Oklahoma 11 UCLA 3 West Virginia 14 Cleveland St 7 LSU 10 Michigan St
2 Houston 15 Drexel
Wednesday Bracket

Monday Bracket

All four one seeds are spoken for after Illinois won at Ohio State.

First four out: Utah St, St Louis, Seton Hall, Syracuse

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 Bryant / Prairie View A&M

8 Florida
9 Loyola-Chicago

5 USC
12 Xavier / Boise St

4 Virginia
13 Liberty

6 Clemson
11 UCLA

3 Kansas
14 UCSB

7 Colorado
10 Wichita St

2 Ohio St
15 S Dakota St

Region 4

1 Illinois
16 Texas St / Norfolk St

8 Virginia Tech
9 UConn

5 Texas Tech
12 Drake / Colorado St

4 Villanova
13 UNCG

6 Creighton
11 Michigan St

3 Oklahoma St
14 Colgate

7 BYU
10 VCU

2 Alabama
15 Weber St

Region 2

1 Baylor
16 Hartford

8 LSU
9 Rutgers

5 Florida St
12 Winthrop

4 Purdue
13 Morehead St

6 Oklahoma
11 Georgia Tech

3 Arkansas
14 Cleveland St

7 Oregon
10 Louisville

2 Iowa
15 Grand Canyon

Region  3

1 Michigan
16 Hofstra

8 San Diego St
9 North Carolina

5 Tennessee
12 W Kentucky

4 Texas
13 Toledo

6 Missouri
11 Maryland

3 West Virginia
14 Abilene Christian

7 Wisconsin
10 St Bonaventure

2 Houston
15 Siena
Monday Bracket

Friday 3/5 Bracket

Kansas escaped UTEP at home to stay a three seed, while Baylor beat Oklahoma State and Texas evened the season series with Oklahoma on the road.

The first four out are (in order): St Louis, Seton Hall, SMU, and Utah St

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 Prairie View A&M / Bryant

8 Florida
9 N Carolina

5 Purdue
12 Colorado St / Drake

4 Texas
13 UCSB

6 Creighton
11 Georgia Tech

3 Houston
14 Liberty

7 Oregon
10 Xavier

2 Iowa
15 James Madison

Region 4

1 Illinois 
16 Norfolk St / Texas St 

8 BYU
9 LSU

5 Missouri
12 Michigan St / Boise St 

4 Florida St
13 UNCG 

6 Tennessee
11 Wichita St 

3 Kansas 
14 Cleveland St 

7 Colorado
10 Rutgers 

2 Alabama 
15 Siena

Region 2

1 Baylor 
16 S Dakota St 

8 San Diego St
9 Maryland 

5 Virginia 
12 Western Kentucky 

4 Oklahoma St
13 Belmont 

6 Clemson
11 St Bonaventure 

3 Arkansas 
14 Grand Canyon 

7 Virginia Tech
10 Loyola-Chicago 

2 Ohio St 
15 UMBC

Region 3

1 Michigan 
16 Eastern Washington

8 Louisville
9 UCLA

5 USC
12 Winthrop

4 Texas Tech 
13 Toledo

6 Oklahoma
11 VCU

3 Villanova
14 Navy

7 Wisconsin
10 UConn 

2 West Virginia
15 Abilene Christian
Friday 3/5 Bracket

Wednesday Bracket

llinois absolutely destroyed Michigan in Ann Arbor, while Baylor won an absolute classic at West Virginia in OT. Baylor locks up a one seed, and Illinois is really close to doing so.

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 Prairie View A&M / Bryant

8 Oregon
9 LSU

5 Texas
12 Colorado St / St Louis

4 Purdue
13 UCSB

6 Florida
11 Georgia Tech

3 West Virginia
14 Liberty

7 USC
10 Xavier

2 Iowa
15 James Madison

Region 4

1 Illinois 
16 Norfolk St / Texas St 

8 BYU
9 North Carolina 

5 Virginia
12 Michigan St / Drake 

4 Oklahoma St 
13 UNCG 

6 Tennessee
11 Wichita St 

3 Villanova 
14 Cleveland St 

7 Colorado
10 Rutgers 

2 Alabama 
15 Siena

Region 2

1 Baylor 
16 S Dakota St 

8 San Diego St
9 Maryland 

5 Creighton 
12 Western Kentucky 

4 Texas Tech 
13 Belmont 

6 Clemson
11 St Bonaventure 

3 Arkansas 
14 Grand Canyon 

7 Virginia Tech
10 Loyola-Chicago 

2 Ohio St 
15 UMBC

Region 3

1 Michigan 
16 Eastern Washington

8 Louisville
9 UCLA
5 Oklahoma 12 Winthrop
4 Florida St 13 Toledo
6 Missouri 11 VCU
3 Kansas 14 Navy
7 Wisconsin 10 UConn
2 Houston
15 Abilene Christian
Wednesday Bracket

Monday Morning Bracket

It’s officially March! So of course it makes sense for Villanova to get upset at Butler and for Iowa to storm into Columbus and win.

There are big changes on the 1-3 lines as a result. The biggest beneficiary is Illinois, a new #1 seed.

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 NC A&T / Nicholls

8 Oregon
9 Rutgers

5 Purdue
12 Winthrop

4 Oklahoma St
13 Belmont

6 Florida
11 St Bonaventure

3 Houston
14 Wright St

7 USC
10 LSU

2 Iowa
15 South Dakota St

Region 4

1 Illinois
16 James Madison

8 N Carolina
9 Xavier

5 Creighton
12 Boise St / Drake

4 Texas Tech
13 Liberty

6 Tennessee
11 Georgia Tech

3 Kansas
14 Navy

7 Virginia Tech
10 Loyola-Chicago

2 Alabama
15 Siena

Region 2

1 Michigan
16 Prairie View A&M / Bryant

8 BYU
9 Louisville

5 Virginia
12 Western Kentucky

4 Oklahoma
13 Toledo

6 Clemson
11 Wichita St

3 Villanova
14 UMBC

7 Wisconsin
10 UCLA

2 West Virginia
15 Grand Canyon

Region 3

1 Baylor
16 Eastern Washington

8 San Diego St
9 Maryland

5 Texas
12 Colorado St / Michigan St

4 Arkansas
13 UC Santa Barbara

6 Missouri
11 VCU

3 Florida St
14 UNCG

7 Colorado
10 UConn

2 Ohio St
15 Texas St
Monday Morning Bracket

The Sunday Skinny (why each team is where they are)

“Why is Florida seeded on the six line?” “Why is Oklahoma State a four?” Well, look below.

ONE SEEDS

Gonzaga: Undefeated with great wins; 1 seed lock

Michigan: Win collection is just slightly better than Baylor’s for 2nd overall

Baylor: Just one loss vs. 6 elite wins

Ohio St: Clear drop off from the three above, but the win at Illinois is a great tiebreaker

TWO SEEDS

Illinois: Nearly an identical resume to Ohio State, but the Illni lost at home in the head to head

Alabama: 7 Quad 1 wins match up with the 5th/6th ranked Strength of Record (SOR) and KPI

Villanova: Lacking marquee wins, but NET, SOR, and the efficiency metrics all align in this range

West Virginia: Efficiency metrics aren’t fantastic, but they have 3 truly elite road wins

THREE SEEDS

Iowa: Just 5-6 vs. Quad 1, but their efficiency profile and Garza are elite

Houston: The East Carolina loss is a killer, but they’ve still won 75% of their Q1/2 games

Kansas: NET, SOR, and Sagarin all agree with this range; 6-8 vs. Q1, but the wins are excellent

Florida St: Feel more like a 4 seed, but this team has been more consistently great than the 4s

FOUR SEEDS

Arkansas: Some very good wins and a great record, but FSU is more efficient (and better?)

Oklahoma St: Toss out the metrics; this team has a sweep of Texas Tech & 5 other great wins

Texas Tech: Swept both Oklahoma & Texas; efficiency metrics love the Red Raiders

Oklahoma: The win in Austin keeps Oklahoma above Texas; metrics don’t love the Sooners

FIVE SEEDS

Texas: The Longhorns are just 4-7 vs. Q1, but four wins stand out (@WV, @KU, KU, OSU)

Virginia: Efficiency metrics love them, but where are the elite wins?

Purdue: A Q3 loss hurts, but the sweep of Ohio St has real power

Creighton: Such an odd profile; Q1/2 record indicates 4 seed while bad losses drag them down

SIX SEEDS

Clemson: Efficiency profile is lacking, but they own wins against Alabama, Florida St, and Purdue

Missouri: For all their troubles, this team is still a perfect 4-0 vs. Quad 1A

Tennessee: They still have wins over Kansas, Arkansas, @Missouri, & Colorado, but just 6-7 vs. Q1/2

Florida: The Gators have a bad loss, but are 8-5 vs. Q1/2 with a huge win at West Virginia

SEVEN SEEDS

Virginia Tech: Metrics don’t like them, but they have no bad losses & wins over ‘Nova, UVA, & Clemson

USC: Some quality wins, but nothing awesome. In range with their efficiency profile & NET rating

Wisconsin: Efficiency metrics love them, but at some point they need to convert more of their chances

Colorado: The Buffs have a sweep of USC and great metrics; but THREE Q3 losses?

The Sunday Skinny (why each team is where they are)

Sunday Morning Bracket

Selection Sunday is now just two weeks away, and Saturday saw some big bracket changes. Notably, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech rocketed up the bracket to four seeds. The Cowboys own 7 wins over locks or at-large contenders. Only one of those wins (at Wichita St) is against a team that’s not in competition for a protected, top four seed. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has completed sweeps over both Oklahoma and Texas.

Xavier (9 seed) beat Creighton to add some room between them and the cut line, and Boise State and Drake are now playing each other for a spot on the 12 line after rough weekends for both squads.

The first four out are (in order): Seton Hall, St Louis, Richmond, Indiana

Region 1

1 Gonzaga
16 NC A&T / Nicholls

8 Oregon
9 Rutgers

5 Purdue
12 Winthrop

4 Oklahoma
13 Belmont

6 Florida
11 St Bonaventure

3 Iowa
14 Wright St

7 USC
10 LSU

2 West Virginia
15 South Dakota

Region 4

1 Ohio St
16 James Madison

8 N Carolina
9 Xavier

5 Creighton
12 Boise St / Drake

4 Texas Tech
13 Liberty

6 Tennessee
11 Wichita St

3 Kansas
14 Navy

7 Virginia Tech
10 Loyola-Chicago

2 Alabama
15 Siena

Region 2

1 Michigan
16 Prairie View A&M / Bryant

8 BYU
9 Louisville

5 Virginia
12 Western Kentucky

4 Oklahoma St
13 Toledo

6 Clemson
11 Michigan St

3 Houston
14 UMBC

7 Wisconsin
10 UCLA

2 Villanova
15 Grand Canyon

Region 3

1 Baylor
16 Eastern Washington

8 San Diego St
9 Maryland

5 Texas
12 Colorado St / Georgia Tech

4 Arkansas
13 UC Santa Barbara

6 Missouri
11 VCU

3 Florida St
14 UNCG

7 Colorado
10 UConn

2 Illinois
15 Texas St
Sunday Morning Bracket