You can see my final bracket below and the reasons for including or not including some bubble teams (both written before the Selection Show).
Things the committee got right:
Syracuse – The committee agreed with me that Syracuse’s wins were too good to not include them (neither of us had them in the First Four, either).
Michigan – The committee liked them having no bad losses, yet four very good wins. Both of us had them in the First Four on the 11 line.
Vanderbilt – You would think I wouldn’t put them here since I had them out and the committee had them in, but they were my last team out and I had them in entering the day. Vandy finished the season on a hot streak (ignoring the bad Tennessee loss) and they had double digit wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M after playing one of the nation’s best OOC schedules.
Wichita State – We both barely had them in because they are just plain an NCAA tournament team. The resume wasn’t as good as the team, and the committee recognized that.
Oregon State – Most bracketologists didn’t buy this team, but I always did. They loaded up on quality wins over great teams and avoided bad losses. That’s why both the committee and me had them at the seven line.
Things the committee messed up:
The Big XII – Iowa State as a four?! Yeah they had a nice resume, but Texas finished above them in a true round robin and Baylor not only swept them and finished with the same round robin record but also beat Texas in the Big XII tournament while Iowa State lost to Oklahoma. How did Iowa State finish above both of those teams? And how is West Virginia behind Oklahoma? They made the Big 12 title game by beating Oklahoma AFTER they had already finished a game above OU in the round robin Big XII. They just seemed to ignore the round robin element entirely.
Kentucky and Texas A&M – I had the winner of the SEC title game as a three and the loser a four. I was shocked when the committee ignored the result of the game and gave A&M the three over Kentucky. Results on the court matter.
Tulsa – What? They had three losses to sub-100 teams, a mediocre RPI and SOS, and an eye test that doesn’t do much. Losing as badly as they did to Memphis should’ve eliminated them.
Providence – It seems beating Butler in the Big East tournament didn’t mean much. After the win at Villanova earlier in the year, I thought they had done enough to move up to the seven line. UNC getting them as a nine is unfair to both teams.